Kutonga kweChina muNeodymium Magnet Kugadzira: Kusimbisa Ramangwana, Kuumba Global Dynamics

Kubva pamafoni emafoni uye mota dzemagetsi (EVs) kuenda kumagetsi emhepo uye marobhoti epamberi, neodymium magineti (NdFeB) isimba risingaoneki rinofambisa shanduko yemazuva ano yetekinoroji. Aya magineti akasimba-akasimba echigarire, anoumbwa nezvinhu zvisingawanzo pasi seneodymium, praseodymium, uye dysprosium, akakosha kune girinhi simba uye high-tech maindasitiri. Asi, imwe nyika inodzora zvakanyanya kugadzirwa kwavo:China.

Iyi blog inonyura mune kuti China yakasvika sei kutonga neodymium magineti kugadzirwa, iyo geopolitical uye zvehupfumi zvinomisikidza kune iyi monopoly, uye zvazvinoreva pakusundidzira kwepasirese kune kusimudzira.

 

China's Stranglehold paNdFeB Supply Chain

China inoverengera kupfuura90%yemigodhi yepasi rose isingawanzo, 85% yekucheneswa-isingawanzoitwa, uye 92% yekugadzirwa kwemagineti neodymium. Uku kusanganisa kwakamira kunopa kusingaenzaniswi kutonga pamusoro pechinhu chakakosha ku:

Mota dzemagetsi:Imwe neimwe EV mota inoshandisa 1-2 kg yeNdFeB magineti.

Mhepo Simba:Imwe 3MW turbine inoda 600 kg yemagineti aya.

Defence Systems:Nhungamiro masisitimu, ma drones, uye radar anovimba nemazvo.

Nepo madhipoziti ezvisingawanzo kuitika zvepasi aripo muUS, Australia, neMyanmar, hutongi hweChina hunobva kwete kubva ku geology chete asi makumi emakore ehurongwa hwekugadzira mitemo nekudyara kwemaindasitiri.

 

Sei China Yakavaka Kutonga kwayo

1. The 1990s Playbook: "Dumping" Kutora Misika
Mumakore ekuma1990, China yakazadza misika yepasirese nepasi isingawanzo dhura, ichideredza vakwikwidzi vakaita seUS neAustralia. Pakazosvika ma2000, migodhi yekuMadokero — isingakwanise kukwikwidza — yakavharwa, ichisiya China seyo yega mutengesi mukuru.

2. Vertical Integration uye Subsidies
China yakaisa mari yakawanda mukunatsa uye magineti ekugadzira matekinoroji. Makambani anotsigirwa neHurumende seChina Northern Rare Earth Group uye JL MAG ave kutungamira kugadzirwa kwepasirese, achitsigirwa nerubatsiro, kutyora kwemutero, uye kuregedzeka kwemitemo yezvakatipoteredza.

3. Export Restrictions uye Strategic Leverage
Muna 2010, China yakaderedza zvisingawanzo kutengwa kunze kwenyika nezvikamu makumi mana kubva muzana, zvichiita kuti mitengo ikwire ne600–2,000%. Kufamba uku kwakafumura kuvimba kwepasirese pazvinhu zveChinese uye kwakaratidza kuda kwayo kushandisa zvombo panguva yekunetsana kwekutengeserana (semuenzaniso, 2019 US-China kutengeserana hondo).

 

Nei Nyika Ichitsamira paChina

1. Cost Competitiveness
Mari yakaderera yevashandi vekuChina, simba rerubatsiro, uye kushomeka kwekutarisa kwezvakatipoteredza kunoita kuti magineti ayo adhure 30-50% pane anogadzirwa kumwewo.

2. Tekinoroji Edge
Mafemu eChinese anotonga patents ekugadzira magineti epamusoro, kusanganisira matekiniki ekudzikisa kushandiswa kwedysprosium (chinhu chakakosha, chinoshomeka).

3. Infrastructure Scale
China isingawanzo-ivhu rekupa cheni-kubva kumigodhi kusvika kune magineti kusangana-yakanyatsobatanidzwa. Nyika dzekuMadokero hadzina kukwenenzverwa uye kugona kugadzirisa.

 

Geopolitical Risks uye Global Tensions

Kutonga kweChina kunoisa njodzi huru:

Supply Chain Vulnerability:Kurambidzwa kumwe chete kunze kwenyika kunogona kumisa EV yepasi rose uye zvikamu zvesimba rinowanikwazve.

Zvekuchengetedzwa Kwenyika:Yepamberi US uye EU kudzivirira masisitimu anovimba neChinese magineti.

Zvinangwa zvemamiriro ekunze zviri panjodzi:Zvinangwa zveNet-zero zvinoda kana NdFeB kugadzirwa kwemagineti panosvika 2050-dambudziko kana kupihwa kukaramba kuri pakati.

Case in Point:Muna 2021, kuendesa kunze kwenyika kweChina kwenguva pfupi kuUS panguva yekudyidzana kwakanonoka kugadzirwa kwaTesla Cybertruck, zvichiratidza kusasimba kwemaketani epasi rose.

 

Global Responses: Kuputsa China's Grip

Nyika nemakambani arikutsvanzvadzira kusiyanisa zvinhu:

1. Kumutsiridza Western Mining

IUS yakavhurazve mugodhi wayo weMountain Pass isingawanzo pasi (ikozvino ichipa 15% yezvinodiwa pasi rose).

Lynas Rare Earths yekuAustralia yakagadzira chirimwa chekuMalawi kuti chipfuure kutonga kweChinese.

2. Kudzokorora uye Kutsiva
Makambani akadaiHyProMag (UK)uyeUrban Mining Co. (US)bvisa neodymium kubva e-marara.

Tsvagiridzo mumagineti eferrite uye dysprosium-isina NdFeB magadzirirwo anovavarira kudzikisa kushomeka-kwenyika kutsamira.

3. Strategic Kubatana
TheEU Critical Raw Materials Allianceuye USDefence Production Actkukoshesa kugadzirwa kwemagineti emumba.

Japan, mutengi mukuru weNdFeB, anodyara $100M pagore mukudzokorodza tekinoroji uye mapurojekiti epasirese emuAfrica.

 

China's Countermove: Cementing Control

China haina kumira. Mazano achangoburwa anosanganisira:

Consolidating Power:Kubatanidza mafemu ehurumende asingawanzo kuita "super-giants" kudzora mitengo.

Export Controls:Inoda marezinesi ekutengesa kunze magineti kubva 2023, ichiratidza isingawanzo-yepasi playbook.

Bhandi uye Kuwedzera Mugwagwa:Kuchengetedza kodzero dzezvicherwa muAfrica (semuenzaniso, Burundi) kukiya mune ramangwana rekushandisa.

 

Mutengo Wezvakatipoteredza weKutonga

Hutongi hweChina hunouya nemutengo wakakwirisa wezvakatipoteredza:

Muchetura Waste:Kashoma kunatsa ivhu kunogadzira tsvina ine radioactive, inosvibisa mvura neminda yekurima.

Carbon Footprint:Kucheneswa kwemarasha kweChina kunoburitsa 3x yakawanda CO2 pane dzakachena nzira dzinoshandiswa kumwewo.

Nyaya idzi dzakurudzira kuratidzira kwemumba uye kuomesesa (asi zvisina kutevedzerwa) mitemo yezvakatipoteredza.

 

Nzira Iri Mberi: Ramangwana Rakaparadzana Here?
Mamiriro epasirese epasi rose ari kuchinjika akananga kumapoka maviri anokwikwidza:

China-Centric Supply Chains:Inogoneka, inogoneka, asi ine njodzi mune zvematongerwo enyika.

Kumadokero "Kutsvaga Shamwari":Ethical, inoshingirira, asi inodhura uye inononoka kuyera.

Kune maindasitiri akaita seEVs uye anovandudzwa, kutsvagisa mbiri kunogona kuve kwakajairika-asi chete kana nyika dzekuMadokero dzikamhanyisa mabhindauko mukunatsa, kudzokorodza, uye kudzidziswa kwevashandi.

 

Mhedziso: Simba, Zvematongerwo enyika, uye Green Transition
Kutonga kweChina mukugadzira magineti neodymium kunosimbisa kangaidzo yekuchinja kwegirinhi: matekinoroji anoitirwa kuchengetedza pasi anovimba neketani yekugovera yakazara nenjodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika uye nharaunda. Kupwanya iyi monopoly kunoda kubatana, hunyanzvi, uye chido chekubhadhara mari yepamusoro kuti irambe iripo.

Sezvo nyika ichimhanya yakananga kumagetsi, kurwa pamusoro peNdFeB magineti haizogadzirise maindasitiri chete asi chiyero chesimba repasi rose.